* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/03/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 47 50 57 64 71 72 70 70 65 52 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 47 50 57 64 71 72 70 70 65 52 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 43 46 51 56 60 62 58 52 45 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 15 8 11 12 11 21 34 49 53 53 62 74 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -3 -3 -2 0 -2 1 -1 0 2 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 322 337 333 319 321 285 247 243 236 234 250 261 271 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.5 27.4 26.0 24.3 20.4 13.6 13.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 147 149 146 142 133 132 117 103 84 71 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 138 138 135 128 119 117 103 91 77 68 68 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -54.6 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 11 10 8 6 4 4 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 58 61 59 60 63 62 61 67 68 69 64 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 16 18 20 24 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR -67 -86 -79 -83 -63 -40 -24 2 47 77 92 95 49 200 MB DIV 24 40 71 63 57 90 40 55 68 77 69 64 27 700-850 TADV 3 6 4 10 21 20 27 14 1 19 20 39 48 LAND (KM) 185 307 386 529 544 546 423 583 489 410 380 268 614 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.8 24.1 25.6 27.1 30.4 33.4 36.3 39.1 41.4 43.4 45.1 46.7 LONG(DEG W) 72.1 73.0 73.9 74.3 74.6 73.9 72.0 69.0 65.2 60.7 55.9 50.5 44.8 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 15 15 16 16 18 20 21 21 21 21 22 HEAT CONTENT 55 47 54 68 42 13 7 20 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 19 CX,CY: -14/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 14. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. -1. -7. -12. -18. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 17. 24. 31. 32. 30. 30. 25. 13. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/03/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/03/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/03/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)