* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 08/03/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 23 25 27 29 23 22 22 15 9 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 0 3 2 2 -1 -3 -3 -1 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 238 233 227 228 231 238 230 219 221 229 220 227 240 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 146 146 147 148 149 148 148 148 148 148 147 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 11 11 10 10 11 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 46 45 44 43 44 49 56 57 60 60 61 60 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 33 29 21 22 28 44 43 49 45 60 69 96 200 MB DIV 4 18 21 18 14 38 21 31 11 0 14 34 68 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 -2 -3 -1 -1 0 -5 -3 -5 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 1405 1457 1511 1580 1651 1807 1986 2188 2431 2708 3004 3290 3575 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 170.6 171.4 172.1 173.0 173.8 175.7 177.7 179.9 182.4 185.2 188.1 190.9 193.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 8 8 9 9 10 12 13 14 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 38 40 37 31 29 45 57 33 30 29 29 29 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):354/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -10. -11. -10. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -11. -13. -14. -13. -11. -7. -3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 08/03/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 08/03/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##