* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932014 08/03/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 25 26 27 28 30 33 34 36 35 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 25 26 27 28 30 33 34 36 35 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 24 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 6 5 4 4 5 3 7 8 10 17 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 -1 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 3 3 2 SHEAR DIR 58 52 23 28 7 294 286 247 287 309 259 226 245 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 135 136 136 133 134 136 139 142 143 144 145 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 60 58 56 53 51 49 50 51 51 48 48 47 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 8 7 6 6 8 9 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 40 34 20 18 11 -6 1 -1 6 16 25 33 41 200 MB DIV 31 25 38 27 -18 3 7 29 11 30 40 57 20 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 -5 -2 -3 0 0 1 -3 LAND (KM) 1172 1015 863 724 586 379 409 589 690 831 1031 1202 1342 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.6 15.5 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.0 17.2 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 146.4 147.9 149.4 150.9 152.4 155.3 158.0 160.7 163.3 165.7 168.1 170.1 171.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 15 15 15 14 13 13 12 11 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 3 2 3 4 18 12 12 20 27 25 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 27. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -5. -4. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 13. 14. 16. 15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932014 INVEST 08/03/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932014 INVEST 08/03/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##