* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/03/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 39 48 60 68 75 80 84 87 89 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 39 48 60 68 75 80 84 87 89 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 33 34 40 49 60 73 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 12 11 8 6 7 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -4 -6 -8 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 89 93 90 109 117 82 79 56 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 148 148 148 149 150 151 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 69 70 70 72 78 78 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 10 11 11 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 90 92 94 90 81 74 62 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 -5 15 41 49 51 100 81 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1115 1177 1251 1323 1404 1514 1589 1698 1852 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.6 10.1 10.8 11.7 12.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 159.5 160.8 162.0 163.3 164.5 166.8 169.1 171.6 174.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 42 44 43 36 30 31 42 37 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 18. 30. 38. 45. 50. 54. 57. 59. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/03/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/03/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##