* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/03/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 100 100 98 97 91 83 74 63 53 44 37 34 V (KT) LAND 100 100 100 98 97 91 83 74 63 53 44 37 31 V (KT) LGE mod 100 99 97 93 89 83 79 73 66 58 52 48 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 8 10 3 5 8 9 8 10 12 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 -2 2 -1 1 8 3 0 -6 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 31 38 102 109 49 162 228 201 200 160 196 212 221 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.2 25.7 25.7 26.0 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 131 130 129 128 128 128 126 122 123 125 128 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.0 -51.6 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 60 59 59 59 59 59 56 51 45 41 37 36 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 28 28 28 28 27 27 27 25 22 20 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -18 -12 -2 -2 16 51 77 96 87 74 55 33 200 MB DIV 41 43 33 24 46 70 34 31 -8 -11 -25 -23 -20 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -6 -4 -2 1 5 11 11 14 7 4 0 LAND (KM) 2256 2316 2204 2114 2025 1856 1681 1504 1277 972 589 247 -6 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.8 15.8 15.9 16.3 16.9 17.8 18.7 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 132.3 133.4 134.4 135.3 136.1 137.7 139.4 141.1 143.2 146.0 149.5 152.6 155.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 12 16 16 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 4 1 1 1 4 4 1 9 1 0 0 0 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -21. -27. -32. -37. -40. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -3. -9. -17. -26. -37. -47. -56. -63. -66. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/03/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/03/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##