* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 08/03/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 29 33 44 54 64 74 78 82 82 82 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 29 33 44 54 64 74 78 82 82 82 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 38 41 43 47 50 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 11 14 11 8 10 10 3 5 9 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -1 0 -1 -1 4 -3 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 39 44 51 52 40 30 12 26 52 85 29 48 27 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.0 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 156 155 153 149 148 146 148 145 141 135 131 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.3 -52.1 -51.5 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 63 64 63 62 63 64 68 74 77 74 72 69 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 14 15 19 21 24 28 29 31 30 32 850 MB ENV VOR 12 12 11 13 15 28 33 26 25 26 32 33 39 200 MB DIV 42 20 4 33 24 49 74 106 97 114 73 83 70 700-850 TADV 5 5 2 2 3 3 0 -3 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 1110 1176 1249 1334 1424 1614 1814 1979 2146 2283 2292 1988 1657 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 12 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 20 26 29 35 13 8 10 8 5 6 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 12. 17. 22. 23. 26. 25. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 8. 19. 29. 39. 49. 53. 57. 57. 57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 08/03/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 08/03/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##