* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 08/03/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 23 23 19 12 13 12 10 14 14 22 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 1 0 2 3 -1 -1 -4 -6 -8 -4 SHEAR DIR 217 214 220 239 258 241 232 186 176 136 108 98 83 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 149 149 150 151 151 151 152 152 152 151 151 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 46 45 44 45 46 46 50 53 61 62 63 61 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 29 36 38 34 31 38 48 66 72 108 130 157 200 MB DIV -14 -1 -12 -34 -13 0 -1 5 26 2 -26 -13 -28 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -2 0 -1 -1 -4 -6 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1919 1986 2055 2142 2229 2413 2623 2849 3106 3386 3673 3941 4192 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.8 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.2 13.9 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 175.9 176.7 177.5 178.5 179.4 181.4 183.5 185.7 188.2 190.9 193.6 196.1 198.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 8 9 9 9 10 10 12 13 13 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 57 67 68 63 59 55 55 56 57 58 62 66 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 929 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -13. -14. -13. -12. -10. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 20. 25. 30. 35. 40. 45. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 08/03/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 08/03/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##