* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932014 08/03/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 33 34 37 37 38 37 35 34 32 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 33 34 37 37 38 37 35 34 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 36 39 40 41 42 42 42 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 10 8 3 4 3 5 9 15 22 24 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -1 0 -3 -3 0 0 1 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 44 24 30 30 350 264 286 250 272 269 276 260 261 SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 140 140 139 138 137 139 142 144 146 146 147 146 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 10 10 700-500 MB RH 61 58 58 55 54 55 55 56 54 55 56 56 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 8 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 34 20 17 10 7 5 9 2 -3 -2 0 1 5 200 MB DIV 19 17 3 -8 -6 40 51 34 22 45 24 24 23 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -6 -3 1 -6 -3 -4 0 -5 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1018 862 708 575 489 513 698 793 980 1192 1420 1606 1771 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.2 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.4 16.0 16.8 17.4 17.8 17.7 17.5 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 148.4 150.2 151.9 153.7 155.5 158.8 162.0 165.0 167.8 170.3 172.6 174.4 175.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 18 18 18 18 16 15 14 13 11 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 5 4 9 9 11 18 30 27 19 32 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 12. 12. 13. 12. 10. 9. 7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932014 INVEST 08/03/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932014 INVEST 08/03/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##