* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/03/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 38 48 57 66 74 78 82 85 87 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 38 48 57 66 74 78 82 85 87 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 34 40 49 60 72 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 12 11 7 5 8 10 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -3 -3 -4 -7 -6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 104 98 103 112 83 63 85 98 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 149 149 149 151 151 151 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 68 70 70 70 75 77 77 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 11 11 10 11 10 11 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 94 94 90 84 83 66 61 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 25 46 43 37 87 76 86 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1185 1247 1318 1385 1462 1552 1654 1782 1935 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.5 9.6 10.3 11.2 12.1 13.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 160.4 161.6 162.8 164.1 165.3 167.8 170.5 173.0 175.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 13 13 14 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 47 45 39 31 31 34 44 46 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 27. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 18. 27. 36. 44. 48. 52. 55. 57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/03/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/03/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##