* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/03/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 100 99 97 95 87 76 66 55 45 38 32 30 V (KT) LAND 100 100 99 97 95 87 76 66 55 45 38 32 31 V (KT) LGE mod 100 99 96 93 90 84 78 70 62 54 49 45 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 9 3 3 10 12 13 11 13 10 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 0 -3 -4 3 3 0 -5 -3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 35 96 95 57 138 203 225 201 175 184 197 206 238 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.3 25.8 25.5 25.8 26.1 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 129 128 128 127 127 127 123 120 124 127 132 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 61 59 60 61 58 56 51 46 41 37 35 35 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 27 27 27 27 26 25 24 22 19 18 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -17 -8 -3 0 37 64 84 90 74 53 44 22 200 MB DIV 38 38 45 44 39 56 39 18 -36 -27 -20 -33 -13 700-850 TADV -8 -5 -2 -1 0 3 9 14 19 12 6 3 0 LAND (KM) 2310 2226 2126 2043 1960 1802 1631 1396 1104 763 411 66 83 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.8 15.8 15.8 15.8 15.9 16.1 16.4 16.9 17.7 18.6 19.7 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 133.2 134.2 135.1 135.9 136.7 138.2 139.8 142.0 144.7 147.8 151.0 154.2 157.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 9 12 14 15 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 2 17 1 3 5 3 1 6 0 0 0 4 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -22. -28. -33. -38. -42. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -5. -13. -24. -34. -45. -55. -62. -68. -70. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/03/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/03/14 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##