* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/04/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 55 58 61 66 71 73 73 69 66 62 50 V (KT) LAND 50 53 55 58 61 66 71 73 73 69 66 62 50 V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 57 59 61 63 64 64 60 52 45 41 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 17 14 11 26 40 47 54 56 62 64 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 2 0 0 -5 0 1 -1 2 -6 -10 -6 SHEAR DIR 339 341 342 336 306 260 244 240 242 233 238 249 255 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.2 27.4 26.2 24.1 18.5 12.6 11.2 12.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 149 148 146 142 129 132 120 103 79 69 68 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 136 134 129 115 116 106 91 73 67 66 66 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 -54.8 -55.0 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 9 7 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 55 57 61 62 61 55 57 58 65 69 65 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 10 11 12 14 16 19 21 26 31 29 850 MB ENV VOR -88 -94 -70 -42 -50 -34 4 41 75 102 117 106 130 200 MB DIV 71 65 56 58 65 39 68 94 101 87 97 49 26 700-850 TADV 2 10 18 12 10 22 10 6 17 22 38 15 -44 LAND (KM) 430 560 633 678 563 388 535 501 417 288 144 500 887 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 25.6 27.1 28.8 30.5 34.1 36.7 39.0 41.5 44.2 47.2 49.1 50.3 LONG(DEG W) 73.0 73.4 73.7 73.5 73.3 72.0 69.2 65.1 60.1 55.3 51.0 46.2 41.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 17 18 18 18 21 22 21 20 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 50 65 32 26 13 10 19 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 15 CX,CY: -5/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -10. -15. -20. -26. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 14. 18. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 16. 21. 23. 23. 19. 16. 12. 0. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/04/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/04/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/04/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED