* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932014 08/04/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 29 29 28 28 27 24 20 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 29 29 28 28 27 24 20 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 31 33 33 33 32 31 29 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 6 4 6 5 14 19 27 36 38 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 2 1 -3 -2 2 3 4 0 3 6 SHEAR DIR 29 20 14 350 318 296 248 266 270 257 243 247 239 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 139 138 136 137 140 142 144 143 143 141 140 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 60 57 55 54 56 56 55 55 55 57 57 57 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 10 10 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 17 6 3 1 1 -6 0 -13 -19 -10 8 17 200 MB DIV 27 5 -16 1 32 60 36 18 41 46 37 44 49 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -4 1 3 -8 -2 -7 -3 1 0 -1 2 LAND (KM) 885 722 578 473 437 572 650 775 970 1150 1297 1405 1476 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.6 14.1 14.7 15.2 16.1 17.2 18.3 19.1 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 150.0 151.8 153.5 155.3 157.0 160.3 163.4 166.1 168.6 170.6 172.1 173.2 174.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 18 18 17 16 15 13 11 9 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 5 4 7 7 12 13 31 35 32 21 22 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 26. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. -2. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932014 INVEST 08/04/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932014 INVEST 08/04/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##