* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/04/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 93 92 92 90 85 76 64 56 46 40 35 34 V (KT) LAND 95 93 92 92 90 85 76 64 56 46 40 35 34 V (KT) LGE mod 95 92 90 87 85 81 74 67 59 52 48 46 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 7 4 5 6 9 10 5 8 11 15 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -2 -3 -4 1 4 0 -1 -3 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 57 85 49 119 148 212 198 206 191 244 274 295 263 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.3 25.8 25.4 25.5 25.9 26.2 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 128 128 128 128 127 123 119 121 125 127 130 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 -51.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 57 59 58 58 56 51 47 42 36 33 34 34 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 25 26 27 25 26 26 23 21 19 17 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -11 -8 4 15 51 74 92 87 73 59 23 -3 200 MB DIV 35 50 35 40 39 23 14 -31 -21 -28 -19 -26 -12 700-850 TADV -8 -3 -2 0 0 4 12 15 12 8 6 1 2 LAND (KM) 2206 2113 2019 1936 1853 1699 1491 1211 866 515 166 15 42 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 16.3 17.1 18.1 19.1 20.0 21.1 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 134.3 135.2 136.1 136.9 137.7 139.2 141.1 143.6 146.7 149.9 153.3 156.2 158.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 8 11 14 16 16 16 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 14 1 3 5 4 2 6 0 0 0 3 5 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -19. -25. -30. -35. -38. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -4. -5. -9. -11. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -5. -10. -19. -31. -39. -49. -55. -60. -61. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/04/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/04/14 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 3 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##