* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 08/04/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 39 44 58 69 73 78 82 83 84 81 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 39 44 58 69 73 78 82 83 84 81 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 38 40 47 52 55 57 58 59 60 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 15 14 12 15 19 15 7 7 8 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 -1 -1 -3 -1 2 0 0 -4 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 73 69 58 51 48 41 30 48 41 47 346 15 20 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 27.9 27.3 27.0 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 155 153 151 148 147 147 148 144 138 135 133 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 63 61 62 61 64 69 75 79 79 76 73 69 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 17 18 22 25 24 25 26 27 28 28 850 MB ENV VOR 22 20 24 32 39 41 28 20 15 11 11 12 9 200 MB DIV 5 24 19 41 64 93 95 76 110 67 49 28 44 700-850 TADV 3 2 3 3 3 -1 -4 -3 -3 -3 -5 -4 0 LAND (KM) 1243 1335 1432 1530 1632 1781 1971 2133 2246 2392 2083 1797 1527 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 11 11 12 12 11 12 13 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 18 25 30 28 33 18 8 10 15 5 5 4 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 27. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 16. 17. 17. 18. 20. 22. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 9. 14. 28. 39. 43. 48. 52. 53. 54. 51. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 08/04/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 08/04/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##