* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/04/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 61 62 64 67 69 67 65 63 48 32 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 61 62 64 67 69 67 65 63 48 32 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 61 62 63 64 64 61 56 48 42 40 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 17 16 19 30 48 50 53 55 65 72 82 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 0 0 -3 -2 -3 0 -3 2 -4 -5 -11 SHEAR DIR 342 333 320 306 291 251 244 236 239 243 251 256 262 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.1 26.7 25.3 20.5 13.9 11.0 12.9 14.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 146 144 137 128 125 112 85 71 68 69 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 134 131 123 114 111 100 78 68 66 66 67 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -54.5 -55.4 -54.9 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 9 8 7 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 55 61 62 61 58 55 57 60 65 64 57 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 12 11 12 14 18 18 23 29 25 21 850 MB ENV VOR -101 -74 -38 -44 -46 -14 19 75 98 124 102 73 89 200 MB DIV 54 64 69 81 40 47 67 135 76 85 79 7 19 700-850 TADV 7 18 17 13 23 22 -6 10 19 42 46 -1 -19 LAND (KM) 533 643 656 571 448 471 517 435 382 117 377 748 1156 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 27.1 28.7 30.5 32.2 35.3 37.9 40.5 43.3 45.9 48.3 49.2 49.2 LONG(DEG W) 73.5 73.6 73.7 73.3 72.8 70.7 66.9 62.1 56.9 52.1 47.8 42.8 37.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 17 18 18 19 21 23 23 20 18 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 69 31 27 14 7 16 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 15 CX,CY: -4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -8. -13. -18. -23. -29. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 6. 10. 15. 10. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 12. 14. 12. 10. 8. -7. -23. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/04/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/04/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/04/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED