* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932014 08/04/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 27 30 35 38 40 38 38 37 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 27 30 35 38 40 38 38 37 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 19 19 19 20 21 22 24 26 29 31 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 8 4 4 3 5 7 4 8 12 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -3 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 -1 -5 -1 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 41 31 15 360 271 330 336 349 315 290 259 267 257 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 140 139 138 139 141 143 145 146 147 146 146 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 61 62 62 61 60 58 60 60 63 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 22 10 3 0 0 0 0 5 -2 -3 -2 -2 1 200 MB DIV 11 0 -2 13 38 60 45 28 37 32 54 49 43 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 1 -3 -3 -8 -4 -4 -2 -2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 788 677 600 568 587 742 829 988 1176 1383 1568 1724 1851 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.1 13.5 14.0 14.4 15.1 15.9 16.5 17.0 17.0 17.0 16.8 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 152.2 153.8 155.4 157.0 158.5 161.5 164.4 167.2 169.7 171.9 173.8 175.3 176.5 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 15 15 14 13 11 10 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 18 20 15 12 17 26 26 18 27 41 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 450 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 26. 30. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 15. 18. 20. 18. 18. 17. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932014 INVEST 08/04/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932014 INVEST 08/04/14 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING