* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/04/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 38 43 54 65 73 79 83 86 89 91 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 38 43 54 65 73 79 83 86 89 91 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 36 43 54 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 5 1 5 9 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -4 -4 -5 -6 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 127 160 117 69 94 76 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 151 152 153 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.9 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 69 70 74 75 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 12 12 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 106 103 100 101 102 96 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 80 80 83 119 78 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1371 1445 1528 1565 1615 1761 1939 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.5 9.7 10.1 10.5 11.4 12.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 163.5 164.9 166.3 167.7 169.1 172.1 175.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 15 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 33 31 31 32 45 42 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 13. 24. 35. 43. 49. 53. 56. 59. 61. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/04/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/04/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##