* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/04/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 110 109 106 100 88 75 61 50 43 40 33 32 V (KT) LAND 110 110 109 106 100 88 75 61 50 43 40 33 32 V (KT) LGE mod 110 109 105 101 96 86 76 66 57 51 47 44 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 1 3 6 14 16 10 13 12 11 19 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 -7 -3 4 0 8 SHEAR DIR 57 21 110 155 185 224 207 193 197 247 230 272 265 SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.0 25.5 25.4 25.7 26.0 26.3 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 127 126 127 128 124 120 119 123 126 128 131 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 59 58 57 56 55 49 45 40 37 35 35 36 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 26 26 25 24 25 24 21 19 17 18 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -11 -1 6 22 52 76 73 63 43 42 1 -9 200 MB DIV 34 24 24 19 14 -12 -29 -32 -2 6 -4 -17 -8 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 1 3 10 17 17 10 10 2 1 -2 LAND (KM) 2110 2020 1931 1854 1778 1597 1340 1030 702 356 102 40 113 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.0 16.2 16.9 17.7 18.5 19.5 20.7 21.8 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 135.2 136.1 136.9 137.7 138.4 140.1 142.4 145.2 148.2 151.4 154.6 157.6 160.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 8 10 12 14 15 16 16 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 1 3 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 4 5 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -22. -30. -38. -44. -50. -53. -56. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -11. -10. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -4. -10. -22. -35. -49. -60. -67. -70. -77. -78. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/04/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/04/14 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##