* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102014 08/04/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 48 55 68 79 86 91 94 95 92 88 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 48 55 68 79 86 91 94 95 92 88 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 44 48 52 61 67 70 71 71 70 68 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 12 10 14 15 17 10 11 6 7 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -2 -3 -4 0 3 0 -2 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 61 55 54 57 53 38 41 42 35 18 24 359 333 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.3 28.0 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 152 150 149 146 145 148 145 139 136 134 131 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -52.3 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 60 62 62 64 64 68 72 78 77 75 72 72 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 15 17 19 22 25 27 28 30 30 30 31 850 MB ENV VOR 22 27 35 47 53 48 34 33 28 16 11 8 9 200 MB DIV 13 15 41 92 102 94 73 109 68 45 45 20 52 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 1 0 -3 -4 -2 -4 -6 -7 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1323 1414 1509 1597 1678 1863 2053 2218 2353 2189 1882 1581 1290 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.4 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.3 13.6 14.1 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 117.7 118.9 120.0 121.2 122.4 125.0 127.6 130.0 132.3 134.9 137.8 140.7 143.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 12 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 25 29 29 34 32 7 8 17 6 6 5 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 17. 20. 22. 23. 25. 25. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 20. 33. 44. 51. 56. 59. 60. 57. 53. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 TEN 08/04/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 TEN 08/04/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##