* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/04/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 77 78 78 79 78 77 71 68 60 50 37 V (KT) LAND 70 74 77 78 78 79 78 77 71 68 60 50 37 V (KT) LGE mod 70 76 80 81 80 76 74 67 57 47 41 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 18 20 22 22 33 45 55 54 62 60 65 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 -4 0 5 -2 2 -3 0 -7 -1 SHEAR DIR 337 322 305 299 280 254 237 230 236 238 244 256 263 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.4 27.5 26.6 24.4 19.2 15.0 14.4 15.9 14.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 145 138 132 134 124 105 81 71 70 72 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 138 132 124 117 119 111 93 74 68 67 68 67 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -54.8 -54.1 -53.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 7 7 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 59 62 62 63 55 55 58 62 60 60 63 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 11 11 14 16 19 21 27 29 29 26 850 MB ENV VOR -77 -40 -35 -41 -29 -9 51 98 112 101 94 127 170 200 MB DIV 62 80 82 28 36 69 116 111 76 94 53 41 17 700-850 TADV 21 23 18 18 24 10 18 19 24 29 -4 -37 -27 LAND (KM) 644 672 612 503 437 593 528 409 256 256 590 961 1335 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 28.4 30.0 31.7 33.3 36.1 38.8 41.7 44.5 46.6 47.8 48.8 49.7 LONG(DEG W) 73.6 73.5 73.3 72.6 71.9 69.0 64.5 59.6 54.7 49.7 44.9 39.9 34.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 18 17 20 23 23 22 19 17 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 35 33 17 12 7 23 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 14 CX,CY: -1/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -19. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. -28. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 14. 15. 14. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 1. -2. -10. -20. -33. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/04/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/04/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/04/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 6( 10) 6( 15) 7( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)