* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP932014 08/04/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 21 22 25 27 31 33 31 29 27 27 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 22 25 27 31 33 31 29 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 18 18 19 19 19 20 21 21 21 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 2 4 4 4 7 10 14 24 26 23 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 0 -3 -4 -2 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 59 30 325 272 279 276 294 276 258 257 261 254 257 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.3 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 137 136 136 139 144 146 148 148 147 147 146 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 58 57 59 60 61 60 58 58 59 59 62 61 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -2 -7 0 1 -2 7 0 -2 -11 -6 -1 -6 200 MB DIV -3 4 25 37 57 42 45 51 41 54 59 58 38 700-850 TADV -1 2 1 -4 -4 -4 -12 -4 -2 -3 -2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 640 540 497 536 614 737 871 1083 1323 1517 1675 1793 1893 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.3 16.2 17.1 17.7 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 153.5 155.2 156.9 158.5 160.1 163.3 166.3 169.1 171.7 173.7 175.3 176.5 177.6 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 16 16 16 14 13 11 9 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 13 17 16 23 12 24 34 20 32 35 44 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 14. 20. 26. 30. 33. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 6. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 11. 13. 11. 9. 7. 7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP932014 INVEST 08/04/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP932014 INVEST 08/04/14 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING