* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/04/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 111 103 97 78 64 54 44 40 33 26 22 V (KT) LAND 115 115 111 103 97 78 64 54 44 40 33 26 22 V (KT) LGE mod 115 113 107 99 92 79 69 61 56 52 48 45 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 4 5 10 6 13 13 11 12 12 20 19 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 2 1 -4 -7 -3 -3 1 2 5 SHEAR DIR 335 285 249 267 240 193 188 162 226 259 269 264 275 SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.6 26.8 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 122 122 124 125 124 122 124 128 132 133 134 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 55 56 53 52 50 46 42 38 36 35 34 34 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 26 25 25 25 24 22 21 19 19 17 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR -7 7 16 29 42 64 78 64 47 30 9 -16 -35 200 MB DIV 23 29 4 -5 -2 -4 -21 -25 -17 -11 -23 -17 -26 700-850 TADV -4 0 1 1 4 12 16 13 10 7 1 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 2014 1925 1837 1760 1682 1465 1164 835 497 166 24 0 213 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.5 17.3 18.1 18.9 20.0 21.2 22.2 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 136.1 137.0 137.8 138.6 139.3 141.3 144.0 147.0 150.1 153.3 156.6 159.3 161.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 8 12 14 15 15 16 15 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 1 0 7 1 0 0 0 3 7 4 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -4. -8. -13. -18. -27. -36. -43. -50. -54. -58. -60. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -9. -12. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -4. -12. -18. -37. -51. -61. -71. -75. -82. -89. -93. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/04/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/04/14 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 36 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##