* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/04/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 58 67 78 87 93 96 95 94 90 83 V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 58 67 78 87 93 96 95 94 90 83 V (KT) LGE mod 40 45 49 54 59 68 74 76 76 74 71 66 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 13 15 13 17 15 12 13 8 9 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -4 -4 -3 0 0 -3 1 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 53 47 47 53 52 32 43 43 18 358 17 341 341 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.2 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.2 26.5 26.3 26.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 150 148 147 144 147 146 137 130 128 129 127 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -52.2 -51.3 -51.8 -51.1 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 62 60 62 64 66 68 73 72 71 69 68 67 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 18 20 22 24 26 28 29 31 32 32 32 31 850 MB ENV VOR 26 33 44 49 48 38 30 32 25 18 18 20 15 200 MB DIV 18 46 102 111 96 84 84 114 35 21 31 51 41 700-850 TADV 2 3 0 -1 -3 -7 -2 -1 -3 -6 -2 4 8 LAND (KM) 1397 1496 1589 1674 1765 1948 2143 2306 2210 1909 1623 1291 966 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.9 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 118.8 120.1 121.3 122.6 123.9 126.5 129.2 131.9 134.6 137.4 140.1 143.2 146.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 26 28 32 25 18 9 15 10 3 4 2 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 23. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 27. 38. 47. 53. 56. 55. 54. 50. 43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/04/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/04/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##