* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/04/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 72 72 71 70 72 68 62 55 48 32 18 V (KT) LAND 70 72 72 72 71 70 72 68 62 55 48 32 18 V (KT) LGE mod 70 74 76 76 75 73 68 58 49 42 38 37 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 20 25 31 50 53 58 63 74 76 81 84 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -5 -1 -4 0 -7 -3 -9 -8 -8 0 SHEAR DIR 321 296 296 275 259 248 234 236 237 250 246 259 262 SST (C) 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.4 27.1 27.2 25.1 20.8 15.9 13.5 14.9 14.6 15.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 143 138 132 128 131 110 86 73 70 71 72 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 130 124 118 114 116 99 79 69 67 68 68 70 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.3 -52.0 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 7 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 63 64 65 62 59 60 64 70 69 55 51 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 10 11 12 15 20 20 23 25 28 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -36 -41 -31 -13 17 69 104 129 126 110 133 159 200 MB DIV 71 64 40 43 54 73 147 107 108 79 44 8 -11 700-850 TADV 22 21 14 21 26 0 8 23 42 57 -31 -29 -40 LAND (KM) 663 590 464 423 455 507 402 322 47 411 786 1220 1409 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 30.3 31.9 33.6 35.2 37.8 40.7 43.7 46.6 48.6 49.6 49.5 48.9 LONG(DEG W) 73.6 73.3 72.9 71.9 70.9 67.3 62.4 57.4 52.5 47.4 42.3 36.3 29.6 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 18 18 18 22 24 23 21 19 18 21 22 HEAT CONTENT 31 16 10 7 14 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 15 CX,CY: 0/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -9. -14. -19. -22. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -17. -22. -27. -32. -38. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 6. 8. 10. 13. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 2. -2. -8. -15. -22. -38. -52. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/04/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/04/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/04/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 4( 12) 4( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED