* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/04/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 115 107 97 87 68 57 48 43 40 37 34 32 V (KT) LAND 120 115 107 97 87 68 57 48 43 40 37 34 32 V (KT) LGE mod 120 115 107 99 91 79 69 62 58 55 52 48 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 7 10 11 14 9 10 10 14 16 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 0 3 -3 -4 -6 -2 1 0 4 5 SHEAR DIR 249 237 265 239 200 202 144 170 239 249 269 265 279 SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.1 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.5 26.9 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 122 123 125 126 123 125 127 131 134 136 136 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.1 -51.4 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 57 54 52 50 49 43 39 36 34 34 35 37 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 26 25 26 26 23 21 19 18 16 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 0 9 21 40 56 68 78 61 37 24 -8 -14 -42 200 MB DIV 29 6 -11 -11 0 -17 -39 -26 -17 -13 -17 -7 -6 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 4 10 16 13 11 9 3 2 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 1920 1848 1775 1678 1581 1296 984 644 272 30 19 113 337 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.3 16.4 17.0 17.5 18.3 19.4 20.4 21.3 22.0 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 137.0 137.7 138.4 139.3 140.2 142.8 145.7 148.8 152.2 155.4 158.4 160.9 163.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 11 14 15 16 16 15 14 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 6 13 17 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -15. -20. -30. -40. -48. -54. -59. -62. -64. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. 0. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -3. -1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -13. -23. -33. -52. -63. -72. -77. -80. -83. -86. -88. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/04/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/04/14 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 8 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##