* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/04/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 64 71 78 89 97 100 101 98 95 88 82 V (KT) LAND 50 57 64 71 78 89 97 100 101 98 95 88 82 V (KT) LGE mod 50 57 64 70 75 83 87 87 84 78 72 66 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 15 14 11 13 9 9 10 6 8 6 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -5 -2 -2 0 -3 0 3 4 3 0 SHEAR DIR 56 54 47 48 40 40 32 51 7 359 6 324 330 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.3 26.5 26.2 26.4 26.3 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 148 146 144 144 146 138 130 127 129 128 125 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -51.8 -51.1 -51.6 -51.0 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 61 62 64 65 64 68 69 69 68 66 64 63 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 18 20 21 22 25 27 27 30 30 30 29 28 850 MB ENV VOR 31 44 50 46 41 38 40 41 36 28 23 22 9 200 MB DIV 38 81 100 94 77 57 67 66 54 19 18 17 3 700-850 TADV 3 0 -3 -5 -7 -4 2 -2 -7 -6 5 7 10 LAND (KM) 1534 1617 1707 1789 1877 2070 2236 2287 1995 1688 1372 1055 729 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.5 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 120.7 122.0 123.2 124.5 125.7 128.4 131.1 133.8 136.5 139.4 142.4 145.4 148.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 31 30 21 13 8 9 14 2 3 2 3 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 12. 16. 17. 21. 21. 21. 19. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 21. 28. 39. 47. 50. 51. 48. 45. 38. 32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/04/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/04/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##