* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/05/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 61 61 61 61 60 54 44 35 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 61 61 61 61 60 54 44 35 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 63 61 60 59 59 55 48 40 35 32 30 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 20 25 35 51 61 64 77 84 89 89 76 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 -3 -2 1 -8 -5 -14 -14 -17 -11 2 SHEAR DIR 304 306 285 268 258 243 240 244 258 269 278 279 275 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.6 26.6 24.6 17.5 13.4 15.0 15.8 16.6 16.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 137 133 130 135 124 107 78 71 72 74 75 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 121 118 116 120 111 97 74 69 69 70 70 70 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -53.4 -52.7 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 7 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 61 63 60 55 57 58 62 70 61 53 43 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 11 13 14 18 20 20 18 19 16 19 22 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -40 -27 -17 -8 31 70 93 59 54 60 109 163 200 MB DIV 71 45 40 57 54 87 115 65 60 25 17 -13 -26 700-850 TADV 20 16 15 15 9 19 14 22 34 38 31 -19 -41 LAND (KM) 558 481 435 495 575 526 431 166 455 931 1415 1275 773 LAT (DEG N) 30.5 31.9 33.2 34.8 36.3 38.8 41.6 45.2 48.7 49.8 48.2 48.4 49.9 LONG(DEG W) 73.4 72.7 72.0 70.6 69.1 64.7 59.2 53.2 46.8 40.3 33.8 27.3 20.8 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 17 20 20 23 27 28 24 21 22 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 15 11 7 11 23 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 18 CX,CY: 2/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 779 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -11. -15. -19. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -17. -25. -31. -38. -46. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 7. 5. 5. 2. 5. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -11. -21. -30. -43. -53. -63. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/05/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/05/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/05/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED