* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/05/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 48 61 72 80 86 91 94 97 98 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 48 61 72 80 86 91 94 97 98 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 38 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 3 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -4 -6 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 81 94 105 94 50 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 149 149 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 69 70 72 73 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 14 15 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 106 108 107 105 99 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 102 127 84 41 25 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -6 -8 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1570 1627 1699 1778 1868 2064 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.8 11.2 11.7 12.2 13.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 168.1 169.6 171.1 172.6 174.1 176.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 16 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 32 37 45 42 73 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 31. 42. 50. 56. 61. 64. 67. 68. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/05/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/05/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##