* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/05/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 114 105 95 84 69 60 51 45 40 36 32 27 V (KT) LAND 120 114 105 95 84 69 60 51 45 40 35 32 27 V (KT) LGE mod 120 114 106 98 91 78 69 63 59 53 49 45 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 10 10 15 7 8 8 14 20 17 27 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 2 0 -2 -4 -2 -3 2 4 5 2 SHEAR DIR 267 297 260 203 177 172 137 223 282 292 278 290 305 SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 25.9 25.8 26.0 26.4 26.8 27.2 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 124 125 126 124 124 126 130 133 137 139 138 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 55 52 51 50 47 43 38 34 34 35 39 44 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 25 25 26 24 23 21 19 17 16 13 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 5 19 34 56 58 76 69 54 49 31 4 -4 -21 200 MB DIV 13 13 -13 0 14 -23 -36 -22 -26 -15 -10 -24 -25 700-850 TADV 4 3 2 9 12 12 16 10 8 6 -2 -6 -11 LAND (KM) 1861 1782 1703 1582 1462 1146 775 396 38 91 98 309 611 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.4 16.6 17.2 18.0 18.8 19.7 20.5 21.1 21.9 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 137.6 138.4 139.1 140.2 141.3 144.2 147.6 151.1 154.5 157.5 160.1 162.8 165.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 11 13 15 17 17 16 14 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 1 5 5 1 1 0 0 0 5 19 23 18 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -14. -20. -30. -39. -47. -53. -58. -61. -63. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -17. -17. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -2. 1. 3. 6. 9. 10. 9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -15. -25. -36. -51. -60. -69. -75. -80. -84. -88. -93. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/05/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/05/14 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 38 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##