* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982014 08/05/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 43 54 68 77 82 85 85 87 88 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 43 54 68 77 82 85 85 87 88 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 35 40 51 66 83 97 107 111 111 110 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 1 3 3 3 2 5 5 14 11 12 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -7 -4 -5 -1 -5 -4 -6 -6 -4 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 65 13 19 34 47 78 103 53 63 85 84 91 104 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 160 161 161 159 155 157 158 158 155 149 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 8 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 74 73 71 68 67 66 67 60 57 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 3 4 3 3 2 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -3 -5 -5 -10 -21 -15 -16 -8 -7 -22 -25 -32 200 MB DIV 28 14 2 0 11 -7 11 -1 0 -1 -13 -7 -15 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 604 582 560 544 547 570 583 633 675 739 811 791 791 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.5 13.2 13.8 14.5 15.1 15.8 16.4 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 96.9 97.8 98.7 99.8 100.8 102.9 105.0 107.0 108.8 110.3 111.8 113.1 114.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 16 25 35 43 70 62 39 27 26 27 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 29. 43. 52. 57. 60. 60. 62. 63. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982014 INVEST 08/05/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 61% is 4.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982014 INVEST 08/05/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##