* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/05/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 103 95 86 77 63 62 56 47 38 31 26 21 V (KT) LAND 110 103 95 86 77 63 62 56 44 40 33 28 23 V (KT) LGE mod 110 102 95 88 82 72 66 62 52 53 48 44 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 10 9 N/A N/A 4 4 3 13 21 16 20 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 N/A N/A -2 0 1 2 0 7 0 0 SHEAR DIR 141 270 231 N/A N/A 58 63 290 271 302 299 323 339 SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.9 26.2 26.6 27.0 27.4 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 125 127 126 125 125 128 131 135 139 140 140 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 N/A N/A -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 N/A N/A 7 8 7 8 8 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 53 51 48 N/A N/A 40 38 36 38 39 42 49 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 27 26 LOST LOST 16 21 20 17 15 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 18 36 41 N/A N/A 84 76 55 47 15 4 0 -12 200 MB DIV 18 20 -24 N/A N/A -35 -36 -14 -18 6 -44 -5 -49 700-850 TADV 3 5 8 N/A N/A 10 15 8 4 1 -6 -7 -11 LAND (KM) 1791 1696 1600 1457 1315 966 588 240 -23 102 202 456 700 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.4 18.1 18.9 19.8 20.5 21.1 21.6 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 138.3 139.2 140.1 141.4 142.7 145.9 149.4 152.6 155.7 158.7 161.5 164.2 166.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 11 13 14 17 16 16 15 14 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 17 24 21 18 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -15. -23. -31. -38. -43. -47. -50. -52. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -5. -12. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -24. -33. -47. -48. -54. -63. -72. -79. -84. -89. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/05/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.7 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.7 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/05/14 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 2 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##