* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/05/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 54 56 57 58 76 81 78 74 72 68 65 V (KT) LAND 50 51 54 56 57 58 76 81 78 74 72 68 65 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 53 55 57 62 64 65 65 62 59 54 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 11 N/A N/A 11 7 9 8 9 10 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -3 N/A N/A 1 -1 -1 1 2 -1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 42 31 24 N/A N/A 11 50 38 359 13 313 310 239 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.7 26.9 26.2 26.1 26.3 26.1 26.0 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 144 143 143 143 134 127 126 128 126 125 127 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 N/A N/A -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 N/A N/A 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 N/A N/A 69 68 67 63 62 63 62 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 22 LOST LOST 16 27 28 27 26 27 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 34 33 32 N/A N/A 29 30 24 11 10 18 12 21 200 MB DIV 50 54 41 N/A N/A 46 25 30 30 -27 35 38 33 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -7 N/A N/A 0 -1 -5 -4 1 1 11 22 LAND (KM) 1684 1766 1854 1945 2036 2221 2230 1929 1624 1297 974 644 328 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.4 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.4 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 123.0 124.3 125.6 127.0 128.4 131.3 134.2 137.0 139.9 143.0 146.1 149.1 151.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 22 14 7 7 8 12 16 3 1 2 8 0 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. 10. 13. 11. 9. 11. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 26. 31. 28. 24. 22. 18. 15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/05/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.3 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/05/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##