* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982014 08/05/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 38 43 56 69 77 81 84 85 86 85 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 38 43 56 69 77 81 84 85 86 85 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 32 36 41 53 68 84 98 106 109 108 106 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 N/A N/A 3 6 11 10 11 11 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 N/A N/A -2 -4 -5 -5 -5 -3 -7 -6 SHEAR DIR 29 29 22 N/A N/A 87 120 78 85 82 106 107 143 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 159 161 161 159 154 157 157 157 154 150 146 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 N/A N/A -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 N/A N/A 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 N/A N/A 67 66 66 64 63 59 50 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 LOST LOST 3 3 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -9 -6 N/A N/A -16 -7 -13 -7 -13 -22 -25 -12 200 MB DIV 13 -9 -9 N/A N/A 24 12 -5 -2 0 4 -2 -10 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -2 N/A N/A -3 -2 -2 0 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 625 607 604 615 627 665 715 770 855 943 957 998 1044 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.4 13.1 13.8 14.4 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 98.1 99.2 100.2 101.4 102.6 105.0 107.3 109.3 111.1 112.7 114.3 115.7 117.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 17 27 34 36 71 67 46 23 19 26 23 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 33. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 31. 44. 52. 56. 59. 60. 61. 60. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982014 INVEST 08/05/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.7 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.3 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 61% is 4.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982014 INVEST 08/05/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##