* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/05/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 100 90 79 71 61 53 47 41 39 39 36 34 V (KT) LAND 110 100 90 79 71 61 53 47 42 40 40 37 35 V (KT) LGE mod 110 102 94 87 81 71 65 62 56 53 50 48 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 13 13 6 7 6 16 19 13 14 16 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 -4 0 0 0 -7 -2 0 4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 252 225 203 208 201 73 342 324 330 321 312 316 324 SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.1 25.9 26.0 26.4 26.8 27.2 27.5 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 127 127 126 125 126 130 133 137 140 139 139 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 51 50 48 45 45 40 37 36 36 37 41 47 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 26 25 23 23 22 19 18 16 15 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 22 39 51 62 70 73 59 47 29 17 20 7 8 200 MB DIV 7 28 15 -13 -26 -42 -26 -20 -7 -1 -30 -15 5 700-850 TADV 1 7 12 16 17 11 11 11 1 -3 -2 -6 -2 LAND (KM) 1719 1600 1481 1325 1168 820 437 90 84 144 309 548 763 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.5 18.4 19.2 19.9 20.6 21.3 21.6 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 139.0 140.1 141.2 142.7 144.1 147.3 150.8 154.0 156.9 159.8 162.7 165.1 167.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 13 14 15 17 16 15 14 14 12 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 1 2 3 0 0 5 11 27 19 15 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -10. -14. -23. -31. -38. -42. -46. -49. -51. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -6. -8. -7. -4. -2. 0. 4. 7. 7. 7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -20. -31. -39. -49. -57. -63. -69. -71. -71. -74. -76. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/05/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/05/14 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##