* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/05/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 56 61 67 72 73 72 67 64 60 59 V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 56 61 67 72 73 72 67 64 60 59 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 52 54 55 58 60 60 58 55 50 46 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 10 10 6 7 10 5 6 8 12 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 -1 -1 1 -1 1 5 3 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 38 5 15 19 29 33 59 15 12 323 319 324 308 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.2 26.2 25.9 26.1 26.1 25.9 25.9 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 142 142 142 138 127 124 126 126 124 124 128 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 -51.7 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 61 61 63 66 67 66 66 64 62 60 61 59 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 23 24 25 26 27 27 27 26 26 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 29 31 27 23 17 24 21 11 1 2 3 1 -5 200 MB DIV 55 37 45 32 53 55 22 31 25 24 33 7 16 700-850 TADV -6 -10 -7 -3 1 1 -2 -2 1 1 11 10 10 LAND (KM) 1731 1812 1899 2000 2089 2290 2063 1754 1441 1145 861 516 168 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.5 16.2 16.5 16.6 16.9 17.5 18.5 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 124.0 125.4 126.7 128.3 129.8 132.8 135.6 138.5 141.5 144.3 146.9 150.0 153.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 14 14 14 14 13 14 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 13 5 4 3 11 3 9 0 9 2 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 24. 22. 17. 14. 10. 9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/05/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/05/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##