* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982014 08/05/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 45 54 61 67 71 72 72 72 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 45 54 61 67 71 72 72 72 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 46 57 69 80 87 90 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 2 2 3 4 5 9 2 8 5 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -4 -5 -4 -6 -4 -6 -4 -2 -4 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 46 18 10 296 354 91 83 98 94 93 136 130 146 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.3 28.8 28.3 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 162 162 162 157 156 157 158 157 152 146 141 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 72 71 70 69 67 67 64 61 52 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -2 -6 -20 -25 -7 -10 -5 -6 -19 -19 -23 -4 200 MB DIV 3 3 25 -12 -5 34 -5 -9 -21 -15 6 -14 -9 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 -2 0 -1 0 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 566 561 570 585 602 627 684 730 815 831 835 854 899 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.5 13.2 13.9 14.6 15.2 15.9 16.5 17.2 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 99.0 100.2 101.3 102.5 103.6 105.9 108.0 109.7 111.3 112.8 114.2 115.5 116.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 8 8 7 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 29 40 47 51 80 50 35 25 26 28 15 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 20. 29. 36. 42. 46. 47. 47. 47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982014 INVEST 08/05/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982014 INVEST 08/05/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##