* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/05/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 44 46 48 50 47 39 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 44 46 48 50 47 39 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 38 37 35 33 29 25 22 19 17 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 41 45 53 61 70 76 82 87 84 73 47 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 -1 -13 -8 -13 -14 -9 -6 -1 N/A SHEAR DIR 255 254 250 244 236 242 245 263 267 282 288 280 N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.7 27.0 25.9 25.2 21.3 15.3 15.4 15.0 15.5 18.9 19.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 137 128 117 111 89 74 73 74 76 83 83 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 123 115 104 99 82 71 70 70 73 79 78 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -53.4 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -53.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 55 54 57 57 59 60 62 54 53 59 57 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 14 17 17 19 20 21 23 18 15 15 19 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -9 15 47 71 88 90 64 81 99 51 61 N/A 200 MB DIV 43 65 101 138 120 91 98 26 12 -3 -11 22 N/A 700-850 TADV 7 13 12 24 37 23 28 35 1 31 26 20 N/A LAND (KM) 425 538 514 455 408 374 304 738 1214 1256 579 79 N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.5 36.8 38.1 39.5 40.9 43.5 45.9 48.0 49.2 49.3 48.3 49.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.2 68.9 66.6 64.3 62.0 56.3 49.3 42.9 36.4 27.6 16.0 6.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 23 23 23 24 26 26 23 26 34 35 33 N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 19 11 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 18 CX,CY: 9/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 776 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -8. -21. -34. -45. -53. -58. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -18. -21. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 5. 2. 2. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 2. -6. -23. -38. -48. -53. -64. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/05/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 47.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/05/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/05/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED