* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/05/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 47 54 62 70 82 92 98 101 102 104 105 104 V (KT) LAND 40 47 54 62 70 82 92 98 101 102 104 105 104 V (KT) LGE mod 40 45 51 57 64 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 4 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -3 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 113 87 81 64 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 150 151 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 69 70 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 16 17 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 115 106 105 104 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 86 71 60 58 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -4 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1800 1881 1971 2065 2167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.7 12.1 12.6 13.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 172.4 173.8 175.2 176.6 178.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 41 44 62 68 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 22. 30. 42. 52. 58. 61. 62. 64. 65. 64. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/05/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 68% is 5.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 58% is 6.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 46% is 7.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 46% is 11.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/05/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##