* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/05/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 86 77 69 64 55 52 46 42 39 37 34 32 V (KT) LAND 95 86 77 69 64 55 52 46 42 39 37 35 33 V (KT) LGE mod 95 87 80 74 69 62 57 54 50 47 45 42 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 14 6 3 5 3 8 13 14 17 19 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 -1 -2 1 1 0 0 0 6 2 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 233 199 201 207 72 92 243 289 287 298 322 338 343 SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.5 26.9 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 127 127 125 124 126 130 134 138 139 139 139 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.2 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 50 49 48 45 43 40 38 36 37 38 42 44 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 26 25 24 23 21 21 19 16 14 14 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 31 42 49 62 63 60 44 32 21 5 2 2 -13 200 MB DIV 2 14 1 -26 -54 -50 -19 -27 -8 -30 -28 -33 -12 700-850 TADV 6 11 14 16 19 13 10 6 1 -6 -5 -10 -2 LAND (KM) 1618 1493 1369 1195 1020 663 324 7 88 136 355 571 783 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.4 16.6 17.0 17.3 18.0 18.8 19.6 20.5 21.0 21.1 21.4 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 139.9 141.1 142.2 143.8 145.4 148.7 151.8 154.8 157.8 160.6 163.1 165.3 167.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 13 16 16 16 15 15 14 13 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 3 1 2 0 0 1 4 20 24 18 14 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -21. -26. -30. -32. -34. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -2. 0. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -9. -12. -15. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 3. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -18. -26. -31. -40. -43. -49. -53. -56. -58. -61. -63. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/05/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/05/14 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##