* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/05/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 57 61 68 70 70 66 61 59 57 58 V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 57 61 68 70 70 66 61 59 57 58 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 52 53 54 57 57 56 54 50 45 42 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 9 7 8 10 8 5 9 7 7 2 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 0 0 -2 -1 0 1 4 2 -1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 18 31 26 35 32 20 17 2 350 338 10 285 174 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 26.7 26.0 26.0 26.0 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 142 141 132 125 125 125 123 123 125 127 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 63 65 67 65 68 66 65 62 61 61 56 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 22 25 26 27 27 27 26 25 25 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR 32 27 21 17 20 25 8 2 -9 -6 -3 -3 -6 200 MB DIV 58 46 40 39 48 52 10 7 17 16 37 12 34 700-850 TADV -9 -8 -1 1 4 0 -4 -1 3 5 7 7 7 LAND (KM) 1807 1902 1998 2078 2167 2240 1928 1617 1304 1002 719 410 159 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.2 19.2 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 125.2 126.7 128.1 129.6 131.1 134.0 136.9 139.8 142.7 145.5 148.1 150.9 153.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 15 14 14 14 14 13 13 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 3 10 12 17 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 6. 5. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 11. 18. 20. 20. 16. 11. 9. 7. 8. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/05/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/05/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##