* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982014 08/05/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 34 45 54 60 65 66 66 64 64 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 34 45 54 60 65 66 66 64 64 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 39 49 60 70 75 77 76 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 0 2 1 4 3 5 14 12 16 19 19 21 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -4 -1 -4 -5 -2 -4 -4 -3 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 42 354 349 35 53 60 59 76 62 85 87 110 98 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 163 162 161 156 159 158 157 152 147 142 137 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 75 73 73 71 70 69 68 66 61 58 53 49 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 4 3 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 0 -10 -18 -15 -6 -12 -3 -24 -17 -20 -11 -5 200 MB DIV 8 23 -14 -1 31 27 -8 1 -15 7 -7 -6 -46 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -1 1 1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 524 530 537 550 550 575 608 668 698 662 657 660 701 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.4 14.3 15.2 16.0 16.8 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 100.0 101.2 102.4 103.6 104.7 106.8 108.7 110.2 111.6 112.7 113.7 114.5 115.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 30 43 54 56 67 57 34 28 28 21 14 10 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 20. 29. 35. 40. 41. 41. 39. 39. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982014 INVEST 08/05/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982014 INVEST 08/05/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##