* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/06/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 55 58 58 53 45 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 55 58 58 53 45 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 45 45 43 39 34 29 25 23 22 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 45 49 54 59 64 69 86 81 77 78 56 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 1 -1 -8 -4 -15 -8 -11 -6 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 251 243 237 238 237 251 258 267 278 268 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.0 25.9 25.5 23.4 17.4 14.3 16.9 16.1 16.6 18.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 129 118 114 99 77 72 76 75 77 82 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 115 106 103 90 72 68 71 71 73 77 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -52.9 -51.8 -50.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 61 59 61 64 63 57 46 49 55 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 17 17 20 20 20 21 25 21 17 19 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 8 41 68 81 87 94 68 88 110 115 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 87 121 121 121 74 80 17 1 -28 -14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 12 19 19 19 15 32 -33 -92 -38 -20 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 521 497 453 437 383 207 478 933 1454 1110 443 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.8 38.2 39.5 40.9 42.3 44.9 46.8 47.8 48.0 48.5 49.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.3 66.9 64.4 61.5 58.6 52.4 46.6 40.3 33.3 24.9 15.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 24 25 26 26 24 22 23 26 30 33 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 11 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 20 CX,CY: 14/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -9. -23. -36. -47. -53. -59. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 16. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -19. -22. -25. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 10. 6. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 13. 8. 0. -19. -36. -46. -55. -63. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/06/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 54.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/06/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/06/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED