* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/06/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 74 64 57 51 42 37 29 27 27 27 29 33 V (KT) LAND 85 74 64 57 51 42 37 31 29 29 28 31 35 V (KT) LGE mod 85 76 69 65 60 54 50 46 42 39 37 36 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 5 4 9 15 16 22 21 25 22 17 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 3 0 -1 1 1 1 2 0 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 209 220 248 351 3 324 298 297 298 287 262 236 197 SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.7 27.1 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 125 124 124 126 128 132 136 139 139 140 144 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 49 48 46 41 43 39 39 41 42 48 54 55 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 24 23 23 21 19 18 14 13 12 12 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 35 48 46 51 53 42 26 16 9 8 1 2 11 200 MB DIV -4 -14 -40 -53 -49 -11 -34 -45 2 5 6 -5 -14 700-850 TADV 14 13 15 22 20 8 10 5 -4 -2 -8 -6 -2 LAND (KM) 1503 1357 1211 1031 852 495 138 38 106 201 464 743 1034 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.5 19.3 20.0 20.7 21.3 21.8 21.7 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 140.9 142.3 143.6 145.3 146.9 150.2 153.5 156.4 159.0 161.6 164.3 167.0 169.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 15 16 16 16 15 13 13 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 1 0 0 0 3 9 26 22 18 13 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -18. -21. -23. -25. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -11. -11. -9. -7. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -17. -17. -18. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. 2. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -21. -28. -34. -43. -48. -56. -58. -58. -58. -56. -52. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/06/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -32.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/06/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##