* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/06/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 65 71 75 82 81 78 73 66 62 60 58 V (KT) LAND 55 59 65 71 75 82 81 78 73 66 62 60 58 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 60 63 65 66 66 63 59 54 50 47 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 9 6 4 3 4 5 4 7 6 2 0 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -3 0 -1 1 5 5 0 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 24 22 38 9 331 31 27 293 1 323 23 246 87 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.2 25.8 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 141 137 127 123 125 123 122 122 124 124 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.7 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 62 62 65 65 66 65 63 61 60 59 57 57 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 23 25 27 28 29 27 27 26 25 24 25 24 850 MB ENV VOR 27 22 19 22 25 13 9 4 9 7 4 -14 -19 200 MB DIV 53 61 69 64 62 27 41 -1 18 20 12 27 14 700-850 TADV -11 -6 0 4 2 -2 -1 2 7 7 7 10 7 LAND (KM) 1922 2020 2105 2206 2315 2024 1707 1407 1105 810 513 289 178 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.1 17.6 18.3 19.4 20.4 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 126.8 128.4 129.9 131.5 133.1 136.0 138.9 141.7 144.5 147.2 149.9 152.2 154.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 16 15 14 14 14 14 14 13 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 12 11 1 8 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 20. 27. 26. 23. 18. 11. 7. 6. 3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/06/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/06/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##