* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 08/06/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 64 72 78 88 95 99 100 100 100 101 99 V (KT) LAND 50 57 64 72 78 88 95 99 100 100 100 101 99 V (KT) LGE mod 50 55 61 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 85 42 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 110 103 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 84 79 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1946 2038 2136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.1 12.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 174.6 176.0 177.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 50 65 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 22. 28. 38. 45. 49. 50. 50. 50. 51. 49. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/06/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.3 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.7 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.3 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 70% is 5.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 63% is 7.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 50% is 8.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 50% is 12.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 08/06/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##