* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/06/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 78 71 64 59 51 45 35 31 29 28 29 31 V (KT) LAND 85 78 71 64 59 51 45 38 34 32 32 32 34 V (KT) LGE mod 85 79 75 70 67 61 58 52 48 43 40 38 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 4 8 9 7 6 15 31 32 26 18 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -7 1 1 2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 211 340 17 24 16 328 286 321 300 299 318 337 309 SST (C) 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.5 26.9 27.2 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 124 124 125 126 130 134 137 140 139 139 140 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 48 45 44 42 40 39 38 42 48 54 51 54 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 20 19 19 17 15 12 11 10 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 42 51 46 44 46 25 16 -1 1 4 7 2 -7 200 MB DIV -15 -27 -39 -46 -27 -18 -27 8 21 -16 -41 -7 -8 700-850 TADV 11 15 16 18 16 5 8 1 -3 -6 -6 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 1353 1195 1038 854 670 324 15 118 129 312 583 775 927 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.8 19.4 20.1 20.8 21.2 21.3 21.6 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 142.3 143.8 145.2 146.9 148.6 151.8 154.7 157.4 160.1 162.7 165.4 167.3 168.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 17 16 15 14 13 12 13 11 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 1 5 18 26 19 14 13 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -23. -24. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -9. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -21. -26. -34. -40. -50. -54. -56. -57. -56. -54. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/06/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -30.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/06/14 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##