* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIO EP102014 08/06/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 75 80 85 87 86 81 75 69 64 60 54 V (KT) LAND 65 70 75 80 85 87 86 81 75 69 64 60 54 V (KT) LGE mod 65 70 74 77 78 78 75 71 64 57 51 47 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 6 1 1 4 7 2 7 3 9 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 8 1 1 -1 -3 3 SHEAR DIR 27 34 17 59 47 340 334 321 256 227 231 192 81 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.2 26.6 25.8 25.9 25.8 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 138 132 123 124 123 120 122 122 123 123 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 61 63 66 67 65 61 58 57 56 57 57 57 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 25 27 27 28 28 28 27 27 27 26 26 23 850 MB ENV VOR 22 15 16 22 18 6 7 3 6 -3 -9 -36 -45 200 MB DIV 50 49 55 56 51 24 8 -4 42 32 29 13 21 700-850 TADV -9 -2 3 1 -1 -5 -3 5 10 11 18 11 14 LAND (KM) 2012 2105 2206 2310 2178 1853 1529 1227 955 692 435 288 195 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.3 19.3 20.6 21.6 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 128.3 129.9 131.4 133.0 134.6 137.5 140.5 143.3 145.8 148.2 150.8 153.0 155.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 16 15 14 14 13 12 13 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 4 12 11 2 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 22. 21. 16. 10. 4. -1. -5. -11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102014 JULIO 08/06/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102014 JULIO 08/06/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##