* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982014 08/06/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 49 58 65 70 72 71 71 70 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 49 58 65 70 72 71 71 70 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 30 33 43 54 66 75 81 83 82 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 5 6 5 15 13 13 14 12 18 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -3 -3 -5 -2 -3 -3 -5 -3 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 97 69 74 79 63 66 79 71 105 105 127 116 113 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 160 157 154 157 158 157 153 150 146 141 137 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 71 68 68 67 67 67 65 61 59 51 47 41 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -19 -10 -4 -1 -3 0 -20 -23 -26 -13 -11 -5 200 MB DIV -11 -14 9 20 17 -9 -7 -24 -5 -11 -19 -7 -24 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 2 0 -1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 634 656 672 686 715 783 879 950 973 1035 1128 1190 1252 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.8 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 102.3 103.6 104.9 106.1 107.3 109.5 111.4 113.2 114.8 116.4 118.0 119.4 120.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 12 12 11 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 39 45 71 87 67 46 23 20 29 16 13 18 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 24. 33. 40. 45. 47. 46. 46. 45. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982014 INVEST 08/06/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 2.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982014 INVEST 08/06/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##