* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/06/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 49 51 51 48 42 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 46 49 51 51 48 42 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 42 39 33 28 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 55 62 67 64 64 82 91 83 73 69 67 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -11 -6 -3 -11 -19 -9 2 5 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 242 240 241 235 256 264 285 297 299 290 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.7 23.4 21.1 17.5 14.0 16.0 15.2 17.3 19.2 19.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 116 99 88 77 71 75 74 78 81 80 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 107 104 90 81 73 69 71 71 73 75 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -53.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 60 61 61 61 65 52 56 59 59 59 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 16 17 17 17 18 14 14 14 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 71 91 75 86 60 49 39 18 -4 11 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 106 97 98 100 81 47 23 -14 -36 -27 5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 31 20 29 23 0 37 -12 43 54 47 29 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 470 450 392 361 220 463 939 1532 1021 569 275 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.4 40.9 42.3 43.6 44.8 47.1 48.7 48.8 48.1 48.0 49.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.1 61.3 58.4 55.4 52.3 46.7 40.2 32.1 23.2 15.4 9.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 26 26 25 24 23 25 28 28 24 22 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 23 CX,CY: 19/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -9. -25. -39. -49. -56. -64. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. -27. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 6. 3. -3. -22. -40. -57. -71. -83. -96. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/06/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 62.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: -1.3/ -1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/06/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/06/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED