* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP092014 08/06/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 64 60 55 48 35 30 28 27 26 28 32 V (KT) LAND 75 70 64 60 55 48 40 35 32 31 31 33 37 V (KT) LGE mod 75 70 66 63 60 57 47 48 45 41 39 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 12 11 8 8 12 26 29 28 20 16 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 -1 1 5 2 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 357 23 20 358 330 284 300 299 289 309 303 298 299 SST (C) 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.4 26.7 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 124 125 126 129 132 136 139 140 139 141 144 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 46 46 43 42 40 39 41 45 50 47 48 47 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 20 20 19 18 16 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 42 38 48 36 18 12 10 18 16 16 16 16 200 MB DIV -33 -37 -49 -34 -28 -18 -28 38 -12 -38 -26 -19 -23 700-850 TADV 11 12 14 13 11 8 10 0 -5 -4 -3 -1 2 LAND (KM) 1186 1020 855 666 478 151 12 132 219 435 664 888 1123 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.9 19.6 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.4 21.6 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 143.9 145.4 146.9 148.7 150.4 153.5 156.1 158.7 161.4 163.9 166.2 168.4 170.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 16 17 16 14 13 13 12 11 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 3 2 28 22 18 13 16 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -15. -20. -27. -40. -45. -47. -48. -49. -47. -43. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092014 ISELLE 08/06/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -36.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092014 ISELLE 08/06/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##